Today's action was classic consolidation/chop that went nowhere fast following the initial move out of the open. The consolidation resulted in one touch and two breaks of the Globex high, and no touch of the Globex low. The Doldrums Range was inside of the Globex Range, which is a tell that we were going to have a non-momentum day. I said this morning that I was going to be looking for a trade only when we broke the Doldrums high or low; however, I held off on the first break because the Globex range was just above and below the Doldrums Range. I held out to see if we were going to get a reversal off the Globex level, which we did. I took the second break because I noticed a buy divergence on the move down before the move up to the doldrums/ Globex highs. The buy divergence signaled that the move up was to be a bit more powerful than the previous. I was able to close out +11 YM ticks. I was up +31 ticks at one point, but the 2,5, and 15 min charts were all lined up with bullish signals, so I held on until price crossed the 20 ema on the 2 minute chart. Price continued to fall after the exit, so good execution. Please note that retrace to the Globex High and Doldrums High following the breakout, as well as where price settled on the day. The point is that these levels act as magnets as well as pivots.
I see two primary reasons for the stagnant action following the open: (1) price located between the 50-61.8% fib zone on the daily chart (most recent daily low to most recent daily high), and (2) Fed decision this week. There just wasn't much reason to put money to work or take money off the table with the Fed Decision coming up this week. The Fib location is a great place to set up came while we wait. A jumping off point if you will when the decision is actually made. We will have guessers piling in Tuesday afternoon in anticipation of the move.
My market summary is posted below:
YM: +11 ticks (equal to +$55 per one contract position).
Good process - flat outcome
Monday HVP: 13,887
24-Hour Range: 77 ticks
Regular Session Range: 74 Range
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