Thursday, October 18, 2007

BAC Takes a Dump-Going Short YM

Went short YM at 13941 following BAC earnings this morning. This financial bellwether can dance around as much as it wants with the language, but the numbers speak for themselves. The market has been searching for direction all week. The action has been herky jerky at best and anyone that trades futures knows this. It's during these times that you go with the news. The bid under the market is shaky at best due to the non-stop runup we have had and the bad news coming out of the financial earnings, which is hammering the S&P earnings for this quarter and will revise next quarters. My thesis is that tech will eventually lead out and lead the way for the rest of the market through the end of '07. However, we trade for today and with that I will flow with the BAC earnings today and go short. This will help me bank coin today and to hedge my decidedly long equity positions, which is tech weighted. But, I saw this coming last week and increased my cash holdings to 50% waiting for a pullback of sorts to happen through earnings season. We lost sight of the effect of financial earnings on the 4th quarter when the fed lowered rates, so this needs to be worked back in to the markets, which it will do in the next week or so as we see how bad the financials get pounded. Once that shock wears off, we will all ignore reality again and focus on tech and China and the market will continue its tear back up. Once I get wind that that upward reversal is happening, I will deploy cash to bank serious coin before the end of the year and impress my wife. Good news that tempers the slide down are beats by pfiser and nokia. Will hold the shorts through the open - I am willing to risk futures trading capital to hedge my equity position. I am more than willing to risk a few bills to gain necessary insurance. I will peel off 1/2 of my short position at yesterdays HVP, which is 13895 giving me 46 ticks on my first 1/2. I will then hold through the storm with the remainder. Banking the profit with the first 1/2 will allow me to comfortably ride out the volatility with the second.

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