Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Futures Morning Session

Short signals triggered across the board about 1/2 hour into the regular session. I had short YM and ER2 triggers on the 15, 5 and 2 min charts. First trades netted +59 ticks on the YM and +10 ticks on the ER2. The net ticks on ER2 were way lower than could have been if I let the indicator get me out instead of a +10 tick profit target. I was satisfied with with the end result and was fully prepared to wait on another 2 min setup to the short side when the market, led by the ER2 decided to push up. Now that I am keeping track of the high volume price from the day before, I fully expected those levels to be targets on both the YM and ER2 given that price was currently below. What tends to happen is that the first to hit a particular objective (be it the high volume price, 50% retracement, pivots, etc.) will usually overshoot so that laggers can catch up and hit their objective. Well, I had the fibs laid over the highs and lows for the 24-hr session for ER2 and noticed that it was above the high volume price from yesterday. ER2 hit high volume price (HVP) stalled and then proceeded past because the YM was lagging on its quest to achieve HVP. This allowed ER2 to move right up to the 50% retrace of the 24-hour session and YM to move dead on to HVP where both stalled and......reversed. I did not factor that into my decision making when the 5-min momentum indicator triggered a long, but given that my 15 min charts were still in short mode, I should have stood aside given this obvious overhead resistance and the 15-min Short signals. But alas - I didn't and took the 5-min momentum signal to go long. I painfully waited for the signals to reverse and settled for a -78 tick play on the YM and -22 tick play on the ER2. In between this mess, I scooped up 6 ticks on a 5 min ZG momentum play. Tough thing here with the ZG was that I was up 30 ticks at one point, but the indicators did not give me an exit signal.

Flat outcome - good process.

My morning results are presented below:

YM: -4 ticks (equal to -$20 per one contract position)
ER2: -15 ticks (equal to -$150 per one contract position)
ZG: +6 ticks (equal to +$60 per one contract position)

24 Hour Range: 148 ticks
Regular Session Range: 95 ticks

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