Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Futures Roundup

I have been noticing a trend all week long, push down through doldrums, chop around a bit within the doldrums range and then head fake back up. Today was easy to spot with the big legs down in the morning session and during the doldrums. The third leg was a weak attempt to pull more shorts in, but with the HVP of Tuesday well above and the HVP of today's session above, there was no way I was taking that bait. We got ER2 back up to today HVP (824) where it caught its breath and then continued on up to Tuesday HVP or 831. Matter of fact, it ended the day dead on Tuesday's HVP of 831. Sick. YM kicked on up to today's HVP of 13895 where it got a bitched-slapped but pushed higher. YM topped out at 13973, just 5 ticks shy of the Tuesday HVP. Interesting thing with YM, it stopped dead at the 61.8% retracement to Tuesday's HVP from today's HVP and reversed almost dead to today's HVP and then proceeded up to the highs of the day. This is better understood with a chart - see below. The solid horizontal lines represent the Doldrums Range:


My trading was well disciplined in the morning session, but not so much in the afternoon session. I punished myself by forcing myself to sit on my hands after I exited my 12:00 trade at 12:07 (Cali time). That proved to be costly punishment since staying with my thesis would have brought in another 50 tick on the ER2 and about 100 ticks on the YM. However, rules are fucking rules.
Good outcome - so, so process

Day trading results are presented below:

YM: +119 ticks (equal to +$595 per one contract position)
ER2: +2 ticks (equal to +$20 per one contract position)

Cumulative day trading and overnight results are as follows:
YM: +316 ticks (equal to +$1,580 per one contract position)
ER2: +133 ticks (equal to +$1,330 per one contract position)


24 Hour Range: 247 ticks

Regular Session Range: 247 Ticks


Monday HVP: 14016

Tuesday HVP: 13978

Wednesday HVP: 13895

I include a 5-min chart with the HVP included:

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