Sunday, October 21, 2007

Canadian Dollar - Just Watching for Now

I have been watching the Canadian Dollar for the past week since I noticed the overbought conditions. Being powered by strong commodity prices in gold and crude, as well as the dollar melt down, the Canadian Dollar (CD) has run to significant overbought extremes on my charts. I typically see the 3-Headed Monster pop up at 161.8 extensions from the initial peak. CD is currently at 200% extensions with the monster just appearing (see below):

Jumping down to the 120 minute chats, we can see the beginning of what is the 3rd leg on the run up. I would say that it is a bit premature to look for a short term correction just yet since the breakout just started and the 34-ema has yet to be broken with a bar close below it. Price appears to be coming back to "kiss" off support as well as the 34 EMA, so I would want to wait for that break and close of the 34-ema to occur. I would also be waiting for a bar on the overbought histogram to close lower than the previous day. This way, we are assured of a 3-Headed Monster that has "set". With these lofty overbought levels, this break could happen sooner than later. I just have it on my "watch" list right now.


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