Futures Market Wrap

I allowed myself to be knocked from my discipline today. It would take a long time to explain all of the trades (impulse and otherwise) that I made today. Suffice it to say that I walked away with +24 ER2 ticks and +20 YM ticks. I also played around a bit with the JY in the early hours and ended up breaking even.

Conducting a review of my "AlvariII" momentum indicator reveals that I only had one valid signal today. It triggered long right after the open (see Signal 1 on the chart). Although it doesn't look like it, I was able to get Targets 1 and 2 before I was stopped at break even on Target 3. The only other valid signal popped just after 11 am, but we were in the doldrums chop zone when it fired, so I did not take it.

I tripped myself up when my AlvariII indicator did not trigger on the big down push or up push. That's where I fell off the wagon and resorted to impulse trading. Needless to say, I was disappointed with my approach today regardless of the outcome. I need to sit back and understand that there are going to be those days when the market moves and I am left behind. This is especially the case when properly using trade indicators. Sometimes they just don't trigger.

One of my non AlvariII trades is a fade of the bottom for the day. In my head, I kept hearing the trading pundits on the floor of the exchange answer the inevitable afternoon question: "Um, can you please explain why the reversal today?" To which the trader states: "Well, we went down and tested the bottom, the bottom held, so we rallied". That simple - nothing more, nothing less. I kept hearing that in my head as we headed to the bottom on the YM, but we never got there when it reversed with a vengeance. That's where I resorted to impulse trading. I saw the price action and noticed the extreme volatility and knew it was more than stop fishing, so I jumped on board.

Good outcome - bad process.

Trade results for today are below:

YM: +20 ticks (equal to +$100 per one contract position)

ER2: +24 ticks (equal to +$240 per one contract position)

24-Hour Range: 228 ticks

Regular Session Range: 213 ticks

Monday HVP: 13613

Tuesday HVP: 13675

Wednesday HVP: 13560