Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Futures - Market Summary

We got 3 solid momentum signals today. Solid signals occurred where the 2, 5, and 15 minute charts lined up and agreed with each other. A mistake I made on Signal #1 was that I held and followed the 15 minute signal on both my ER2 and YM plays instead of liquidating positions based on 2 or 5 minute reversal or attainment of profit target - I just got plain greedy. The result is that I rode the move up off the lows and didn't get out until I had a loss.
















Prior to entering Signal 1, I jumped on a two minute signal short where there was no confirmation from the 5 or 15 minute charts. I sustained minimal losses. Following this loss, I sat on my hands and waited for the Regular Session Range to exceed 50 ticks. After a couple of head fakes, the move came and triggered Signal 1.

The bounce off of #1 came with a 2 minute momentum reversal to long, but the 5 and 15 minute momentum indicator did not confirm. We then entered the Doldrums chop zone where no trades were entered. Notice how the Doldrums low was exactly the same level as Monday's HVP.

Following the chop zone, we had a strong move up out of the Doldrums Range, which triggered Signal 2 and allowed me to capture long profits on both the YM and ER2. The move down from Signal 2 did not trigger any short signal, so I sat on my hands once again.

I, unfortunately then needed to leave and was not here for Signal 3. Even though the signal triggered at 12:30 (which is a time for me to walk away from signals), Signal 3 was a wonderful trigger on both the ER2 and the YM. There were confirmations on all time ranges.

The great thing about today, with the exception of the CD trade before the market open (yes, I got stopped out - whaddya think?), is that I took only set ups. Now, I did make a mistake to not take profits from Signal 1, but I took absolutely no impulse trades.

My end of day trading summary is below:

YM: +2 ticks (equal to +$10 per one contract position)
ER2: +24 ticks (equal to +$240 per one contract position)

It is a moot point, but my results would have been as follows if I did not make the 15 minute mistake this morning:

YM: +61 ticks (equal to +$305 per one contract position)
ER2: +70 ticks (equal to +$700 per one contract position)

FWIW - it's important to know what the hell you are doing once you are in a trade and to not start changing exit rules once you are in. Go with the goddamn trading plan - nothing else.

24 Hour Range: 143
Regular Session Range: 143

See chart above for Monday and Tuesday HVP

The chart below shows the HVP for Monday and Tuesday

Good Process - So So Results

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