Friday, October 26, 2007

Futures Market Summary

My speculation re: market direction was dead on. I called my bias as "long" when the YM was up 22 ticks - we ended up 134 ticks. Could not have been more right, but it wasn't a clean run by any stretch of the imagination. You could tell there was a battle every step of the way, herky jerky every step of the way. The past several days has seen essentially two daily trends: (1) down in the morning, and (2) up in the afternoon. Good thing about today was that it was a Friday that saw buying in the close. The big battle of the day was 13,839 on the YM, which got tested on 4 pushes up in the afternoon session. Fairly sizable bars up into that level and sizable bar pushes out of that level. The breakout at the end of the day saw a move up and out of that area - good news for longs. Another "tell" for the day was the number of times we came down to the 2 min, 200 ema for tests - exactly zero.


I began the day testing the currency waters again trading the loonie and got pegged for 16 pips (equal to -$200 per one contract position). The four morning momentum positions I took chopped me up and spit me up for -61 ticks. So I stood aside and waited, and waited, and waited. The trend break came and I went for the trend reversal. I was able to pull in enough ticks to erase my draw down and give me a nice profit for the day.
BTW, look at that wedge action between the uptrend and doldrums high and the resulting pop out of that zone. One last "tell" was that we usually see a retest of the Doldrums high once we get the breakout; however there was no "kissing" today.
Below is my summary for the day:
YM: +72 ticks (equal to +$360 per one contract position)
ER2: +67 ticks (equal to +$670 per one contract position)
CD: -16 ticks (equal to -$200 per one contract position)
24-Hour Range: 164 ticks
Regular Session Range: 124 ticks

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