The YM chart is very similar to ER2 except that this bitch did not make it to HVP. This little fact is what screwed up an otherwise fucked up trading day. I was planning on the overshoot from ER2, which was the first to achieve Tuesday HVP. So, I had sell orders in for partial positions on both ER2 and YM at the YM Tuesday HVP - never got there. Thus is the reason for my holding longs into the evening. Ouch! Look at the YM pattern after it broke out of the doldrums range - how the hell do you trade that. Answer is you don't. You recognize it for what it is, have your market thesis and ride out the storm. Failure to ride it out leads to being chopped up in-n-out, ad nauseum. My market thesis at that time was Tuesday HVP objective. Now it is a matter of waiting it out.
No finishing numbers tonight due to open positions and a bad attitude, but let me just say that a nice move up through the night will probably get me back to even for where I stand at this point for the day.
Friday Market Thesis: trade the frigging patterns, but since I am long I offer up the following:
1. Gold has had a good run up and thuse will pause and pull back on Friday like it has a habit to do - market long positive.
2. Yen will pause in its push up from the 200 ema (daily chart) once it hits the 50% to 61.8% fib area (around 25 ticks above the high of today). At this point, it will cease its move higher on Friday - market long positive.
3. Oil - ouch, no guesses here. The only thing I can toss out is that it falls off after achieving $90 per barrel. However, overall market long negative.
4. HVP - uptick from Monday-Wednesday levels - market long positive
5. Prayers - can't hurt. Net market long positive (at least in my mind).
In the end, I should not be holding the longs given that I am a frigging day trader with these contracts, not a swing trader. But alas, trading is trading.
Bad process - bad outcome
HVP Update:
YM: Thursday 13915 - uptick from Wednesday level
ER2: Thursday 827.90 - uptick from Wednesday level
2 comments:
WTC,
I really enjoy your daily posts. Your candid approach is very cool. I have been trading for many years, but your system is absoulutely a mystery to me. So I will have to do some research as to what all this means (YM, HVP & ER2). Actually did a little reading today about all this but would like to know more. Any sites or books about Doldrom's etc.
Thanks.
jfs,
Many thanks for the post. Doldrums is not something that is well published. John Carter at Trade the Markets makes reference to it in his writings (Mastering the Trade). Basicially, it's the period where volume dries up during the day while the boys eat lunch. Futures market whips around quite a bit on low volume during this period. Just best to stay away from day trading futures during this time. This period is usually referenced as the 9-10:30 period (Cali time), but my observations while trading futures over the past 5 years shows that, for some reason, 10:20 is the time when volatility comes back into the market. Then, when the boys get back in the markets and pits to continue trading, they need to clean up their books before continuing with the day, so you get chop, head fakes, etc. before the market continues with their mission. YM and ER2 are just the Dow and Russell futures contracts, respectively. The track the actual indices and are valued at $5 per tick (or point) move for the YM and $10 for the ER2 (tick - not point. There are 10 ticks per ER2 point). Finally, HVP is High Volume Price for that particular contract for that particular day. Simply stated, it's the price at wich attracts the most volume for that day. These are pivot points for the traders. Once price starts to move, it usually targets those pivots to rest and/or reverse.
Many thanks for the comment.
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